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Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs – Climate Change Risk Assessment 2021

The Climate change risk assessment 2021 report summarizes the climate risks and impacts associated with the current global emissions trajectory and existing NDCs.

The descriptions of these risks focus on the next 20–30 years, to highlight the urgent need for emissions reduction actions to avert them.


The report sets out five areas of climate change impacts and adverse consequences that will become severe over the next 20–30 years.


Analysing these impact themes, and based on the central impact indicator estimate, we highlight:
• The climate impacts of concern.
• What is already happening.
• How much worse impacts are likely to get by 2040–50, if emission trends continue.
• Impacts and consequences at a regional level and global scale.







For fuller details on how to interpret the climate risks and impacts described in the summary report, see the supporting Chatham House research paper for briefing officials, which includes greater geographic granularity as well as methodological descriptions.

Read the full research paper at


29 Setembro, 2021